jason said:
Conrad said:
Another thought: so far I've only talked about the producer of an article betting on / investing in that article (and one or more people taking the other side of the bet, if it's a bet)
But perhaps the betting system could be generalized in that anybody who sees an article can bet on or otherwise invest in the success of that article.
This would function as a substitute for e.g. 'likes' or 'upvotes'. The thing about 'likes' and 'upvotes' is that there is little to no cost to them as you can 'like' or 'upvote' as many articles as you want (not sure if this is true btw). if you bet or invest on the other hand you'd have to do it with something that is scarce because your reward will be in the form of the same thing you bet or invest with and it will only be a reward if it is something that is scarce.
It would also function as a substitute for tipping. If you tip somebody there are no potential rewards for you. Betting on or investing in an article on the other hand means that if you correctly predict that an article will be successful you get more money back than you bet / invested.
The advantage of this system is that it rewards those who are good at predicting (as early on as possible) what articles will be successful, and punishes those who are bad at it.
(Gee, if true, then decentralized content curation may be the killer app of prediction markets.)
This is an interesting idea.. however, wouldn't there be a risk of this "comment prediction market" focusing the gambler's attention to how he thinks other people will rate the article instead of the value they actually see in it? Basically, wouldn't this just make people want to look for articles that are easy to guess people's reactions to and stay away from more controversial ones?
I think the profitability of articles would probably rise & fall as time passes and crypto-related news stories propagate across the blogosphere. There may be no conclusive "value" to be found in any comments - they become transient things to bet on. I'm not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing. It may be the next evolution of the DIGG / REDDIT type models.
Well, the thing is, this would sort of take care of itself because different bets have different odds: the potential ROI of betting 1 LTBcoin on uncontroversial articles (low risk) would be considerably lower than the potential ROI of betting 1 LTBcoin on controversial articles / articles not many other people think will be popular (high risk).
Not sure what you mean by 'no conclusive "value" to be found in any comments..." Can you say more about what you have in mind?