I divide 2014 into 3 eras:
1) The Dogecoin era.
2) The Darkcoin era.
3) The BitsharesX era.
Each era is marked by an altcoin that achieves great notoriety largely due to the fact that that coin addresses the main concern the Bitcoin community has about Bitcoin at the time. The Dogecoin era was during a time when the community's main concern was with the horrible public image Bitcoin had developed, particularly in the wake of Silk Road and later the collapse of MtGox. During this period Bitcoin received a tremendous amount of press, but most of it was negative and fearful, and this poor PR was felt to be Bitcoin's greatest weakness. It was no wonder, then, that during this period an altcoin that was light, fluffy, harmless and happy-go-lucky -- everything the opposite of the deep dark sinister picture the mainstream media had of Bitcoin -- would emerge seemingly out of nowhere to become one of the most talked about altcoins of all time: Dogecoin.
Sometime after the collapse of MtGox, the press figured Bitcoin was finished and forgot about it. However, institutional players were only more interested in Bitcoin. It was during this period that government regulation, Wall Street, and mainstream acceptance became the hot topics, and correspondingly a growing awareness that Bitcoin, contrary to being anonymous, was actually quite transparent and could actually be used as a means for surveillance by powerful institutions, regulators and governments. It was during this period -- which we have only recently exited -- that the community became convinced that Bitcoin's greatest weakness was its lack of strong anonymity. Thus Darkcoin ascended as the most hyped altcoin.
With the release of the Bit License proposal the steam faded from the Darkcoin era's sails. The idea that Bitcoin could just go mainstream and make us all rich through Wall Street adoption lost appeal. Though concerns about Bitcoin's anonymity continue, these concerns have taken a back burner -- like concerns about Bitcoin's image before -- to other concerns. These concerns began over the summer when one of the mining pools achieved over 50% of the hashing power. The lack of action on the part of core devs on this issue gave the community the strong impression that Bitcoin was stagnate and incapable of evolving. Concerns that Bitcoin might itself be flawed -- particularly the consensus algorithm -- have grown
tremendously, leaving us in the current era: the BitsharesX era. BitsharesX has rapidly rose to notoriety precisely because it has innovated a new consensus algorithm that many people think might be inherently superior to Bitcoin's. Right now we are in a period of grave doubt concerning whether Bitcoin itself is really the future.
Each of these eras have been marked by fear, uncertainty, and doubt, driving the price downward. In short, the optimism that gave rise to the tremendous bubble at the end of 2013 was not sustainable, and inevitably had to be tempered with the long, drawn out, community introspection over whether Bitcoin is too good to be true, or whether it really is happening. Every doubt, every concern, must be turned over and collectively examined before there can be another bubble. It is like when you have an amazing insight -- that was the bubble of December 2013 -- but then pause and ask yourself, "wait a minute, is that really possible" and proceed to consider every doubt you possess until you are satisfied. 2014, thus far, has been our collective processing of every doubt we have, one after the other. Right now we are at the stage were we are doubting the protocol itself at a technical and economic level.
When the doubting stops there will be a massive bubble reflecting a profound optimism, at which point the doubting will start all over again. The next time the issues spawning doubt will feel much larger and serious as the larger society really begins to grapple with the fact that this is happening.
